This tool is designed for research and directional guidance only. It uses generalized industry benchmarks — not your company's actual CPARS scores, pipeline data, or competitive intelligence. Actual win rates vary significantly based on factors like proposal quality, relationships, pricing, and more.
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Government Contract Win Probability Estimator
Answer a few quick questions about your federal contracting opportunity to get an instant, data-driven win probability estimate based on competition type, past performance, incumbency, and more.
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Your Estimate
See Your Win Probability
Fill out the form and click Calculate Win Probability to get your personalized estimate.
How We Calculate Your Estimate
Our model scores six independent factors drawn from public procurement data, academic research on federal contracting outcomes, and industry-accepted capture management frameworks:
- Competition Type:The single largest driver. Sole-source and 8(a) direct awards face far less competition than full-and-open solicitations.
- Past Performance:Agencies evaluate relevance, recency, and quality. Exceptional CPARS ratings on similar contracts significantly improve your score.
- Incumbency:Incumbents hold a structural advantage — they understand the requirement, the customer, and the transition risk involved in switching.
- Contract Value:Larger contracts attract more and better-resourced competitors. Smaller awards are generally more accessible to emerging contractors.
- Team Composition:A strong teaming strategy fills gaps in capability and past performance. Subcontractor roles carry lower win probability than prime positions.
- Agency:Each agency has distinct procurement culture, recompete loyalty rates, and acquisition vehicle preferences that influence award patterns.
Disclaimer: This tool is intended solely for research and educational purposes. The estimate it produces is a generalized approximation based on industry-wide benchmarks — it does not account for your company's specific proposal quality, pricing strategy, customer relationships, or competitive intelligence. Win probability varies significantly by company, opportunity, and market conditions. SamSearch makes no warranty, express or implied, regarding the accuracy of these estimates. Do not use this tool as the sole basis for a bid/no-bid decision.
Frequently Asked Questions
Incumbency and competition type are consistently the two most impactful factors in government contracting. Incumbents win recompetes at high rates, and set-aside competitions dramatically reduce the field of eligible offerors — both significantly improving your odds.
Federal agencies are required to assess past performance risk when evaluating proposals. Strong, relevant past performance on contracts similar in scope, size, and complexity can be the deciding factor in a Best Value or LPTA evaluation.
Teaming can improve your score by filling capability gaps, adding past performance, or satisfying small business subcontracting requirements. However, a poorly structured team can introduce risk. Subcontractor roles generally reduce your probability compared to being the prime.
Different agencies have different procurement cultures, incumbent loyalty rates, and recompete patterns. Agencies like DoD and VA tend to have larger, more competitive pipelines, while GSA and HHS operate with different acquisition vehicles and award structures.
No. A proper bid/no-bid analysis incorporates your company's specific pipeline, staffing capacity, price-to-win analysis, competitive intelligence, and relationship capital. This estimator is a starting point for exploration — not a substitute for a full capture management process.
SamSearch gives you the intelligence to make smarter bid decisions: recompete tracking, AI opportunity recommendations, competitor analysis, and agency spend patterns. The earlier you identify and pursue an opportunity, the higher your win rate.